No truth stands alone.

The Breakdown of the (199)6-Party System

Beating Bush and Bill Clinton by a hair in the 1992 election, third-party candidate Perot nevertheless stamps deep marks into the future of US politics and policy. Alternate universe now reporting on: The Perot Presidency.

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Arctic Wolves in Polling

A brief intro to Bayesian statistics in English, and why our model only barely includes the latest (18/Feb/21) Newspoll in its margin of error.

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Is Queensland Labor a model for the centre-left?

In a recent article discussing Australian Labor’s decline in small-town Australia, acclaimed progressive campaign strategist and pollster Kosmos Samaras concludes by holding up Queensland Labor as a model of electoral success. Here, I examine whether Queensland Labor’s performance is truly as extraordinary as claimed.

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Perot: Long Shot or Unprecedented President?

In a new video by the thought-provoking AlternateHistoryHub, they describe a Ross Perot win in 1992 as “incredibly unlikely”. However, Perot’s polling and coalition could have allowed him to win even without a plurality of the vote, had he not dropped out midway.

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Pandemic Politics: Incumbent Governments

Contrary to popular belief, the average incumbent government made no net gains in elections held during the pandemic, with only weak evidence that governments who oversaw COVID-19 explosions suffered electorally.

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